Using Data to Transform Physician Demand

Across healthcare, multiple forces are converging to strain the physician workforce. Burnout remains a central issue, population needs are evolving, workforce shortages persist, and competition for talent now extends well beyond traditional hospital settings. Together, these pressures are pushing organizations to move away from traditional, fragmented approaches to physician workforce planning and adopt more comprehensive, coordinated strategies.

Physician shortages continue to grow. The Association of American Medical Colleges projects a U.S. physician shortfall of up to 86,000 by 2036,^[i] driven by an aging population, uneven provider distribution, rising labor costs, and ongoing burnout. Roughly 45% of physicians reported burnout in 2025, even as rates have improved from pandemic peaks.^[ii]

Structural shifts within the workforce are adding to the strain. Nearly 42% of active physicians are expected to reach retirement age within the next decade,^[iii] while rural areas continue to experience declines in independent physicians and practices.^[iv] These shortages are further compounded by funding disparities, compensation challenges, and evolving population health needs.^[v]

Demand for care is also increasing and becoming more complex, due to a variety of factors such as rising chronic disease rates, growing demand for behavioral health services, and an aging population. At the same time, competition for physicians has expanded beyond traditional hospital settings, with telehealth, retail health, and other emerging care models reshaping expectations around compensation and work-life balance.^[vi]

Together, these dynamics are impacting access, growth strategies, and financial performance, making it increasingly important for organizations to optimize physician workforce planning.

Building a complete view of physician workforce need

Historically, physician planning was reactive. Organizations hired to replace retiring physicians, reduce wait times, or maintain panel sizes. Compensation was largely tied to productivity. Over time, planning evolved to include patient experience, quality, and efficiency, but even these models struggle to keep pace with today’s environment.

Leading organizations are shifting toward forward-looking, data-driven planning that anticipates needs earlier and enables more proactive decisions. Recruitment becomes strategic, with demand projections, productivity benchmarks, technology, and advanced practice provider (APP) coverage to support it.

At its core, physician workforce planning comes down to a straightforward concept: Physician Need = Demand – Supply

While simple in theory, applying this equation in practice is far more challenging. Understanding demand requires looking at it from multiple angles. Organizations typically rely on two primary approaches. Population-based models use population size and demographics to estimate how many physicians are needed over time, while productivity-based models use visit volumes and production benchmarks to determine required capacity. Each approach has limitations.

Population models capture long-term trends but assume consistent productivity, while productivity models align more closely with day-to-day operations but may overlook broader demographic shifts. A hybrid approach that blends both perspectives provides a more complete and reliable view of demand.

Supply presents a different challenge, as no single dataset offers a full picture of available physician capacity. Individual sources each provide partial insight, but none are sufficient on their own. A more accurate understanding comes from integrating multiple data sources to better understand available supply.

With both demand and supply defined, organizations can quantify net need by specialty and geography. Physician planning should be treated as an ongoing, integrated process that connects strategy, finance, and operations over time. That process typically includes four stages:

1. Assess: Evaluate market demand, supply, and service line strategy
2. Model: Quantify the financial and operational impact of hiring decisions
3. Plan: Integrate recruitment strategy into budgeting and forecasting
4. Execute: Track performance and refine the strategy over time

By continuously moving through these stages, organizations can adapt to changing market conditions and make more informed, coordinated workforce decisions.

Connecting data and physician insight in workforce planning

Effective physician workforce planning depends on more than access to data. It requires bringing together multiple types of information. Market data helps identify demand trends, operational data provides insight into productivity and utilization, and financial data allows organizations to model impact and prioritize investments.

When these datasets are integrated, organizations gain earlier visibility into emerging gaps and can evaluate different hiring scenarios, better align workforce strategy with financial performance, and continuously track outcomes. This kind of connected data-driven approach is vital as health systems balance growth, access, and margin pressures.

It is important to remember that planning for physicians cannot happen without the physicians themselves. Data establishes the foundation, but physician input is critical. It adds context that data cannot capture. Engaging physicians throughout the planning process supports more informed and transparent discussions around workforce needs, productivity expectations, compensation models, and care delivery strategies. Bringing together data and physician perspective helps ensure that workforce plans are not only analytically sound, but also practical and aligned with how care is actually delivered.

Enabling enterprise physician planning across the Strata platform

As physician workforce planning grows more complex, the challenge for many organizations is no longer just methodology. It is fragmentation. Demand modeling often lives in one system, financial planning in another, and performance tracking somewhere else entirely. This disconnect makes it difficult to see the full picture or understand the true impact of workforce decisions.

A more effective approach is to connect physician planning across a single, integrated workflow that aligns strategy, finance, and operations.

Strata Market Solutions supports a foundational understanding of physician supply and demand by incorporating population trends, claims data, and productivity benchmarks. This gives leaders a clear view of market need by specialty and geography, helping identify gaps and align workforce strategy to growth opportunities.

StrataJazz® OnePlan Short Term Planning translates those insights into financial and operational plans. Organizations can model hiring scenarios, evaluate tradeoffs, and incorporate workforce strategies directly into budgeting and forecasting processes, ensuring that recruitment decisions are grounded in financial reality.

StrataJazz® Decision Support quantifies both the expected and actual impact of physician investments. By analyzing changes in volume, revenue, cost, and profitability across service lines and facilities, leaders can better understand how workforce decisions influence overall performance.

Strata Comparative Analytics provides external benchmarks for physician productivity, compensation, and operational performance. These insights help organizations prioritize recruitment and improvement efforts based on where the greatest opportunities for impact exist.

StrataJazz® Continuous Improvement enables ongoing monitoring of workforce decisions by tracking variation in cost, quality, and operational performance over time. This continuous feedback loop allows teams to refine assumptions, adjust strategies, and stay aligned with expected outcomes.

As workforce pressures intensify, healthcare leaders need a more connected, data-driven approach to physician planning. Integrating these capabilities into a cohesive workflow supports more informed decisions, greater alignment across the organization, and a clearer path to balancing access, quality, and financial performance.

^[i] Sanford, J.: “U.S. Physician Burnout Rates Drop Yet Remain Worryingly High, Stanford Medicine-led Study Finds.” Stanford Medicine News Center, April 9, 2025.

^[ii] Mathewes, F.: “Retirement, Burnout Fuel Physician Shortage: 4 New Stats.” Becker’s ASC Review, Jan. 7, 2026.

^[iii] Mathewes, F. (2026)

^[iv] Taylor, M.: “The State of the Physician Workforce in 2025.” Becker’s Clinical Leadership, April 9, 2025.

^[v] Horstman, C., Shah, A.: “The State of Rural Primary Care in the United States.” The Commonwealth Fund, Nov. 17, 2025.

^[vi] American Hospital Association: “4 Takeaways on Coming Shift in Health Services Demand.” AHA Center for Health Innovation Market Scan, 2026.