More than 9 in 10 Finance Leaders Cite Interest Rates as Top Drivers of Change, AI Seen as Most Transformative Long-term Force
CHICAGO, IL — March 3, 2026 — Ninety-one percent of finance leaders at U.S. banks, credit unions, and other financial institutions say interest rate changes will be the top factor shaping their business model focus in 2026, as the possibility of interest rate cuts continues to create market uncertainty.
That finding, which mirrors 2025 survey results, comes from Strata Decision Technology’s 2026 CFO Outlook for Financial Institutions. The report combines industry analysts’ projections with insights from Strata’s annual survey of industry finance leaders to examine the key risks and priorities shaping strategies for the year ahead.
Inflationary pressures and customer attrition tied as the second most-cited factors, each selected by 55% of respondents, reflecting persistent margin pressure and heightened competition for deposits and loans. When asked about specific risk exposures, respondents again ranked interest rates highest, followed by credit risk, cyber and data governance concerns, and regulatory or policy changes.
At the same time, 86% of finance leaders identified artificial intelligence (AI) as the factor expected to have the biggest impact on the long-term future of financial institutions. However, most institutions remain in early planning or early implementation stages of AI adoption, underscoring a significant readiness gap between aspiration and execution.
“Interest rates remain the dominant near-term risk for financial institutions, but AI is clearly viewed as the most transformative force on the horizon,” said Beth Sutton, Vice President at Strata Decision Technology. “Finance leaders are focused on protecting margins today while building stronger data and planning capabilities to compete in a more digital, analytics-driven future.”
Despite economic uncertainty, commercial lending continues to stand out as the industry’s primary growth engine, with 71% of respondents projecting commercial loans as the leading driver of profitability growth in 2026, echoing responses to both the 2025 and 2024 surveys. Deposits and consumer loans followed at 26% each, with wealth management cited by 21%, signaling continued efforts to diversify revenue streams.
To maintain financial resilience amid uncertainty, 78% of leaders reported decreasing expenses as a core strategy. Process automation (68%) emerged as the most effective cost management lever, a task that is increasingly being coordinated via AI, among other tactics. Workforce optimization and product portfolio and pricing reviews followed. Institutions are also expanding digital capabilities (58%), adjusting product pricing (55%), and increasing non-interest income (45%) to offset margin pressure.
Gaps in data and analytics capabilities continue to limit strategic agility. Sixty-eight percent of respondents cited data integration and governance as their top financial planning and analysis (FP&A) challenge, and 61% reported ongoing reliance on manual processes as a core challenge.
While 47% routinely use systems to support scenario modeling, nearly one-quarter (24%) continue to conduct scenario analysis manually in Excel, and 16% do not conduct scenario modeling at all.
Looking to 2026 investments, the survey results showed a broad range of priorities across institutions, including data and analytics (53%), process automation (50%), fraud and security (44%), and digital banking (42%).
As financial institutions navigate rate uncertainty, margin pressure, accelerating digital disruption, and increased competition and merger and acquisition (M&A) activity, the report findings highlight the need for stronger planning, data integration, and scenario modeling capabilities to support more resilient decision-making in 2026 and beyond.
About Strata Decision Technology
Strata Decision Technology, LLC provides innovative enterprise performance management software, data, and intelligence solutions for financial institutions, including robust reporting and visualization tools. Strata’s Axiom software helps finance professionals elevate performance by acquiring insights, accelerating decisions, and advancing their business plans. For more information, please visit www.stratadecision.com.
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