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The 2021 National Patient and Procedure Volume Tracker

New Year, New Analytics. Welcome to the new 2021 National Patient and Procedure Volume Tracker. Following last year’s report, we have made several key changes to provide more data, new analytics and adjusted methodology to better understand the impact of the second wave of COVID-19 on hospitals and health systems. We hope you find this report even more useful than the 2020 version.

Six-Month Analysis of Patient and Procedure Volume at 275 Hospitals Shows an Industry in Slow Recovery

On May 11, 2020 we produced the original National Patient and Procedure Volume Tracker™ (NPPVT) published based on data from the StrataSphere network. At that time, the impact of the coronavirus pandemic was pushing many hospitals to the brink of financial collapse. Volumes, particularly surgical procedure volumes, were falling rapidly across the country and the Northeast saw a massive spike in COVID-19 volumes with very high mortality rates. The rest of the country began to cancel “elective” care and took extraordinary measures to ensure that hospitals wouldn’t be overwhelmed. At the same time, concern was growing as patients stopped coming in for needed care.

Six months later, the landscape, while still very difficult, looks markedly different thanks to the infusion of $175 billion from the CARES Act and the heroic efforts of healthcare providers and systems. Despite highly politicized, state-by-state decisions, health systems stood resolute. In recent months, we have witnessed dramatically lower mechanical ventilator use and mortality rates. And today, it’s clear that institutions can manage COVID-19 volumes while safely treating patients suffering from other issues.

Download the Six Month Summary

What we see in the data is the story of an industry learning to live in a new normal that may never look like it once did, not only because of COVID-19 but because of an acceleration of new care models, technology, and consumer preferences.

The updated Six Month Summary of the National Patient and Procedure Volume Tracker reveals a few of the following insights:

COVID-19 Analysis: Healthcare providers have quickly learned and heroically responded to COVID-19 as demonstrated by dramatically lower ventilator and mortality rates

• COVID-19 inpatient volumes did not surge nationwide as expected and did not replace the dramatic decline in total admissions
• Admission rates from the ED declined across all age cohorts, suggesting providers have developed more skill in identifying who has COVID-19 and corrected treatment
• Admitted COVID-19 patients in the top seven DRGs have a length of stay 20% higher than non-COVID patients for the same DRG, justifying an increase in reimbursement
• While ventilator use has declined dramatically, most COVID-19 patients who are on a ventilator stay on it for over 96 hours

Patient and Procedure Volume Analysis: The impact to inpatient and ER volumes has been significant and the new normal may force a wide-spread re-evaluation of financial models for hospitals

Inpatient volume has not fully recovered with inpatient procedures and surgeries still down significantly

• Volumes now approaching 2019 levels, but lost volumes have not recovered
• The “new normal” may be 90-95% of previous levels
• Inpatient procedures and surgeries continue to trail 2019 levels, down 18.6% cumulatively, having a negative financial impact
• Medical, not surgical service lines, have come back strongest as patients have focused on chronic, preventative, and screening care

Outpatient volume has recovered for some, but not for all

• Volumes fell significantly, but have now recovered, down 56% at the start, but down only 1.5% for the past 30 days
• Recovery is not evenly distributed, as some areas have come back strongly, while other care areas still lag
• Volume rebound demonstrates ongoing recovery outside the inpatient setting, including new channels such as telehealth

Emergency room visits are still down by 25% nationally

• Emergency Room (ER) care fell by 50% with people only going to the ER if essential
• Potentially serious care, that normally comes to the ER, is still being avoided or is down
• This decrease in ER visits also potentially reflects a return to the optimal role of the ER
• ER volume is still down by approximately 25% nationally vs. 2019

About StrataSphere^®

StrataSphere currently includes over 100 participating health systems, representing more than $150 billion in operating expense. Whereas existing comparative analytics and benchmarking solutions rely primarily on public datasets, StrataSphere provides accurate, actionable and timely comparisons of key metrics. StrataSphere utilizes machine learning to leverage trillions of data points from this network of providers already using StrataJazz for financial planning, analytics and performance. For this reason, participation in StrataSphere requires no additional data submission or work effort.

Download earlier reports from the National Patient and Procedure Volume Tracker below.

The National Patient and Procedure Volume Tracker™ 2020 Reports